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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-17 ]

Florida's 17th District

Matthew Montavon (D)vsGreg Steube (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Greg Steube (R)

9 in 10

Greg Steube favored95%

Very likely for Greg Steube: a 95 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Greg Steube (R)
  • District:17 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Steube 95%
  • Margin:Steube +12.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Steube +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Steube +12.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Steube +20.1 to Steube +4.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Steube +12.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Montavon ahead is positive, Steube ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Greg Steube, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Steube +12.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Greg Steube (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Matthew Montavon (D) vs Greg Steube (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 36.1, Republican 63.9. Steube by 27.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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