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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-18 ]

Florida's 18th District

Curtis Gibson (D)vsScott Franklin (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Scott Franklin (R)

9 in 10

Scott Franklin favored88%

Very likely for Scott Franklin: a 88 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Scott Franklin (R)
  • District:18 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Franklin 88%
  • Margin:Franklin +8.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Franklin +8.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Franklin +8.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Franklin +16.7 to Franklin +0.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Franklin +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gibson ahead is positive, Franklin ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+8, worth 13.9 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Scott Franklin, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Franklin +8.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Scott Franklin (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Curtis Gibson (D) vs Scott Franklin (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.7, Republican 65.3. Franklin by 30.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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