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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-20 ]

Florida's 20th District

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)vsBrent Andersen (R)

open seat · Lean: D+20 · Incumbent: Vacant

99 in 100

Debbie Wasserman Schultz favored>99%

All but certain for Debbie Wasserman Schultz: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+20
  • Incumbent:Vacant
  • District:20 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Schultz >99%
  • Margin:Schultz +44.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Schultz +44.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Schultz +44.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Schultz +36.8 to Schultz +52.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Schultz +44.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Schultz ahead is positive, Andersen ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+20, worth 34.8 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Schultz +44.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
New seat, no incumbent.
On the ballot
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) vs Brent Andersen (R)
Last time
2024: Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
D+20 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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