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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-21 ]

Florida's 21st District

James Martin (D)vsBrian Mast (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Brian Mast (R)

8 in 10

Brian Mast favored82%

Likely for Brian Mast: a 82 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+7
  • Incumbent:Brian Mast (R)
  • District:21 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Mast 82%
  • Margin:Mast +7.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mast +7.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mast +7.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mast +14.9 to Martin +0.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Mast +7.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Martin ahead is positive, Mast ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+7, worth 12.2 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Brian Mast, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Mast +7.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Brian Mast (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
James Martin (D) vs Brian Mast (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 38.2, Republican 61.8. Mast by 23.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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