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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-24 ]

Florida's 24th District

Oliver Gilbert (D)vsTe Mayonna Brown (R)

open seat · Lean: D+22 · Incumbent: Frederica Wilson (D), not running

99 in 100

Oliver Gilbert favored>99%

All but certain for Oliver Gilbert: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+22
  • Incumbent:Frederica Wilson (D), not running
  • District:24 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Gilbert >99%
  • Margin:Gilbert +48.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gilbert +48.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gilbert +48.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gilbert +40.3 to Gilbert +56.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Gilbert +48.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gilbert ahead is positive, Brown ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+22, worth 38.3 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Gilbert +48.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Frederica Wilson (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Oliver Gilbert (D) vs Te Mayonna Brown (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 68.2, Republican 31.8. Wilson by 36.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
D+22 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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