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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-26 ]

Florida's 26th District

Nicole Locklin (D)vsMario Díaz-Balart (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Mario Díaz-Balart (R)

8 in 10

Mario Díaz-Balart favored83%

Likely for Mario Díaz-Balart: a 83 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+7
  • Incumbent:Mario Díaz-Balart (R)
  • District:26 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Díaz-Balart 83%
  • Margin:Díaz-Balart +7.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Díaz-Balart +7.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Díaz-Balart +7.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Díaz-Balart +14.9 to Locklin +0.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Díaz-Balart +7.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Locklin ahead is positive, Díaz-Balart ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+7, worth 12.2 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Mario Díaz-Balart, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Díaz-Balart +7.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mario Díaz-Balart (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Nicole Locklin (D) vs Mario Díaz-Balart (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 29.1, Republican 70.9. Díaz-Balart by 41.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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