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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IN-01 ]

Indiana's 1st District

Frank Mrvan (D)vsBarb Regnitz (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+1 · Incumbent: Frank J. Mrvan (D)

9 in 10

Frank Mrvan favored99%

All but certain for Frank Mrvan: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+1
  • Incumbent:Frank J. Mrvan (D)
  • District:1 of 9 in Indiana
  • Odds:Mrvan 99%
  • Margin:Mrvan +16.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mrvan +16.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mrvan +16.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mrvan +8.5 to Mrvan +24.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Mrvan +16.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Mrvan ahead is positive, Regnitz ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+1, worth 1.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Frank J. Mrvan, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Mrvan +16.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Frank J. Mrvan (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Frank Mrvan (D) vs Barb Regnitz (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 53.4, Republican 44.9. Mrvan by 8.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.6, Harris 39.6. Trump by 19.0.
Lean
D+1 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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