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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IN-03 ]

Indiana's 3rd District

Kelly Thompson (D)vsMarlin Stutzman (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+16 · Incumbent: Marlin Stutzman (R)

99 in 100

Marlin Stutzman favored>99%

All but certain for Marlin Stutzman: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+16
  • Incumbent:Marlin Stutzman (R)
  • District:3 of 9 in Indiana
  • Odds:Stutzman >99%
  • Margin:Stutzman +22.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Stutzman +22.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Stutzman +22.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Stutzman +30.6 to Stutzman +14.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Stutzman +22.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Thompson ahead is positive, Stutzman ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+16, worth 27.8 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Marlin Stutzman, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Stutzman +22.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Marlin Stutzman (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kelly Thompson (D) vs Marlin Stutzman (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 31.4, Republican 65.0. Stutzman by 33.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.6, Harris 39.6. Trump by 19.0.
Lean
R+16 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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