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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IN-07 ]

Indiana's 7th District

André Carson (D)vsPatrick McAuley (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+21 · Incumbent: André Carson (D)

99 in 100

André Carson favored>99%

All but certain for André Carson: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+21
  • Incumbent:André Carson (D)
  • District:7 of 9 in Indiana
  • Odds:Carson >99%
  • Margin:Carson +51.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Carson +51.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Carson +51.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Carson +43.3 to Carson +59.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Carson +51.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Carson ahead is positive, McAuley ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+21, worth 36.5 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (André Carson, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Carson +51.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
André Carson (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
André Carson (D, incumbent) vs Patrick McAuley (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 68.3, Republican 29.0. Carson by 39.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.6, Harris 39.6. Trump by 19.0.
Lean
D+21 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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