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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IN-06 ]

Indiana's 6th District

Cinde Wirth (D)vsJefferson Shreve (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+16 · Incumbent: Jefferson Shreve (R)

99 in 100

Jefferson Shreve favored>99%

All but certain for Jefferson Shreve: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+16
  • Incumbent:Jefferson Shreve (R)
  • District:6 of 9 in Indiana
  • Odds:Shreve >99%
  • Margin:Shreve +22.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Shreve +22.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Shreve +22.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Shreve +30.6 to Shreve +14.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Shreve +22.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Wirth ahead is positive, Shreve ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+16, worth 27.8 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Jefferson Shreve, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Shreve +22.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jefferson Shreve (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Cinde Wirth (D) vs Jefferson Shreve (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 31.7, Republican 63.9. Shreve by 32.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.6, Harris 39.6. Trump by 19.0.
Lean
R+16 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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