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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MA-06 ]

Massachusetts's 6th District

Dan Koh (D)vsMicah Jones (R)

open seat · Lean: D+11 · Incumbent: Seth Moulton (D), not running

99 in 100

Dan Koh favored>99%

All but certain for Dan Koh: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+11
  • Incumbent:Seth Moulton (D), not running
  • District:6 of 9 in Massachusetts
  • Odds:Koh >99%
  • Margin:Koh +29.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Koh +29.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Koh +29.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Koh +21.1 to Koh +36.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Koh +29.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Koh ahead is positive, Jones ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+11, worth 19.1 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Koh +29.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Seth Moulton (D) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Dan Koh (D) vs Micah Jones (R)
Last time
2024: Seth Moulton (D) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 36.0, Harris 61.2. Harris by 25.2.
Lean
D+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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