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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MA-09 ]

Massachusetts's 9th District

Bill Keating (D)vsTyler MacAllister (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+6 · Incumbent: Bill Keating (D)

99 in 100

Bill Keating favored>99%

All but certain for Bill Keating: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+6
  • Incumbent:Bill Keating (D)
  • District:9 of 9 in Massachusetts
  • Odds:Keating >99%
  • Margin:Keating +25.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Keating +25.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Keating +25.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Keating +17.2 to Keating +33.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Keating +25.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Keating ahead is positive, MacAllister ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+6, worth 10.4 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Bill Keating, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Keating +25.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Bill Keating (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Bill Keating (D, incumbent) vs Tyler MacAllister (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 56.5, Republican 43.5. Keating by 13.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 36.0, Harris 61.2. Harris by 25.2.
Lean
D+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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