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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MA-04 ]

Massachusetts's 4th District

Jake Auchincloss (D)vsThomas Stalcup (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+11 · Incumbent: Jake Auchincloss (D)

99 in 100

Jake Auchincloss favored>99%

All but certain for Jake Auchincloss: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+11
  • Incumbent:Jake Auchincloss (D)
  • District:4 of 9 in Massachusetts
  • Odds:Auchincloss >99%
  • Margin:Auchincloss +33.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Auchincloss +33.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Auchincloss +33.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Auchincloss +25.9 to Auchincloss +41.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Auchincloss +33.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Auchincloss ahead is positive, Stalcup ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+11, worth 19.1 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Jake Auchincloss, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Auchincloss +33.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jake Auchincloss (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jake Auchincloss (D, incumbent) vs Thomas Stalcup (R)
Last time
2024: Jake Auchincloss (D) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 36.0, Harris 61.2. Harris by 25.2.
Lean
D+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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