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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // UT-03 ]

Utah's 3rd District

Kent Udell (D)vsCeleste Maloy (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+21 · Incumbent: Celeste Maloy Redistricted from the 2nd district (R)

99 in 100

Celeste Maloy favored>99%

All but certain for Celeste Maloy: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Celeste Maloy up 18.1.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+21
  • Incumbent:Celeste Maloy Redistricted from the 2nd district (R)
  • District:3 of 4 in Utah
  • Odds:Maloy >99%
  • Margin:Maloy +25.9, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Maloy +18.1
  • Latest poll:Lighthouse Research, Sep 15, Maloy +18.1
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Maloy +25.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Maloy +25.9
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Maloy +32.0 to Maloy +19.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Maloy +18.1 across 1 poll, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Maloy +31.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Udell ahead is positive, Maloy ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Celeste Maloy Redistricted from the 2nd district (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kent Udell (D) vs Celeste Maloy (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 33.6, Republican 66.4. district by 32.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 59.4, Harris 37.8. Trump by 21.6.
Lean
R+21 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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