Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // UT-04 ]

Utah's 4th District

Jonny Larsen (D)vsMike Kennedy (R)

open seat · Lean: R+17 · Incumbent: Burgess Owens (R), not running

99 in 100

Mike Kennedy favored>99%

All but certain for Mike Kennedy: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Mike Kennedy up 8.8.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+17
  • Incumbent:Burgess Owens (R), not running
  • District:4 of 4 in Utah
  • Odds:Kennedy >99%
  • Margin:Kennedy +15.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Kennedy +8.8
  • Latest poll:Lighthouse Research, Sep 17, Kennedy +8.8
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Kennedy +15.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Kennedy +15.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Kennedy +21.3 to Kennedy +9.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Kennedy +8.8 across 1 poll, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Kennedy +19.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Larsen ahead is positive, Kennedy ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Burgess Owens (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Jonny Larsen (D) vs Mike Kennedy (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 30.2, Republican 63.4. Owens by 33.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 59.4, Harris 37.8. Trump by 21.6.
Lean
R+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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