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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // UT-02 ]

Utah's 2nd District

Peter Crosby (D)vsBlake Moore (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+15 · Incumbent: Blake Moore Redistricted from the 1st district (R)

9 in 10

Blake Moore favored99%

All but certain for Blake Moore: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Blake Moore up 5.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+15
  • Incumbent:Blake Moore Redistricted from the 1st district (R)
  • District:2 of 4 in Utah
  • Odds:Moore 99%
  • Margin:Moore +14.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Moore +5.0
  • Latest poll:Lighthouse Research, Sep 24, Moore +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Moore +14.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Moore +14.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Moore +20.5 to Moore +8.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Moore +5.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Moore +20.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Crosby ahead is positive, Moore ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Blake Moore Redistricted from the 1st district (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Peter Crosby (D) vs Blake Moore (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.2, Republican 58.0. Maloy by 23.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 59.4, Harris 37.8. Trump by 21.6.
Lean
R+15 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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