Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // UT-01 ]

Utah's 1st District

Ben McAdams (D)vsRiley Owen (R)

open seat · Lean: D+12 · Incumbent: None (new seat)

99 in 100

Ben McAdams favored>99%

All but certain for Ben McAdams: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Ben McAdams up 41.5.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+12
  • Incumbent:None (new seat)
  • District:1 of 4 in Utah
  • Odds:McAdams >99%
  • Margin:McAdams +35.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging McAdams +41.5
  • Latest poll:Lighthouse Research, Sep 10, McAdams +41.5
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McAdams +35.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McAdams +35.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McAdams +29.1 to McAdams +41.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
McAdams +41.5 across 1 poll, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
McAdams +30.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McAdams ahead is positive, Owen ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
New seat, no incumbent.
On the ballot
Ben McAdams (D) vs Riley Owen (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 32.1, Republican 63.1. Moore by 31.0. Under the previous map.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 59.4, Harris 37.8. Trump by 21.6.
Lean
D+12 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats