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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-04 ]

Florida's 4th District

LaShonda Holloway (D)vsAaron Bean (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Aaron Bean (R)

7 in 10

Aaron Bean favored68%

Likely for Aaron Bean: a 68 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+5
  • Incumbent:Aaron Bean (R)
  • District:4 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Bean 68%
  • Margin:Bean +3.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bean +3.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bean +3.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bean +11.4 to Holloway +4.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Bean +3.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Holloway ahead is positive, Bean ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+5, worth 8.7 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Aaron Bean, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Bean +3.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Aaron Bean (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
LaShonda Holloway (D) vs Aaron Bean (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 42.7, Republican 57.3. Bean by 14.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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