Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // FL-07 ]

Florida's 7th District

Bale Dalton (D)vsRyan Elijah (R)

open seat · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Cory Mills (R), not running

a coin flip

Too close to call51%

The model gives Bale Dalton a 49 percent chance and Ryan Elijah 51 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: Ryan Elijah up 1.9.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+5
  • Incumbent:Cory Mills (R), not running
  • District:7 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:a coin flip, Elijah 51%
  • Margin:Elijah +0.1, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Elijah +1.9
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, May 21, Dalton +2.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Elijah +0.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Elijah +0.1
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Elijah +6.2 to Dalton +6.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
Elijah +1.9 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Dalton +1.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Dalton ahead is positive, Elijah ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Public Policy PollingDalton +2
    May 21 · B+ · 570 RV41 to 39 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Elijah +1.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Cory Mills (R) lost the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Bale Dalton (D) vs Ryan Elijah (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 43.5, Republican 56.5. Mills by 13.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats