T-minus 16 days
● House // Race file
[ House // FL-22 ]
Florida's 22nd District
Pia Dandiya (D)vsCasey Askar (R)
open seat · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: None (new seat)
a coin flip
Too close to call52%
The model gives Pia Dandiya a 52 percent chance and Casey Askar 48 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: Casey Askar up 3.2.
- Seat:Open seat
- Lean:R+4
- Incumbent:None (new seat)
- District:22 of 28 in Florida
- Odds:a coin flip, Dandiya 52%
- Margin:Dandiya +0.4, give or take 4.8
- Polls:3, averaging Askar +3.2
- Latest poll:Impact Research, Aug 31, tied
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Dandiya +0.4
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Dandiya +0.4
- Uncertainty
- 4.8 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Askar +5.7 to Dandiya +6.5 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Askar +3.2 across 3 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Dandiya +2.9 before any polls
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Dandiya ahead is positive, Askar ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 3 public polls
- Aug 31 · B/C46 to 46 · 50% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Askar +3.3
- Aug 12 · unrated · 551 LV50 to 50 · 50% weightadjusted Askar +3.0
- GQRAskar +2Jun 25 · A- · 400 LV43 to 45 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Askar +4.3
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Aug 31 | n/aLV | Tie46 to 46adjusted Askar +3.3 | 50% |
| Tavern Research | unrated | Aug 12 | 551LV | Tie50 to 50adjusted Askar +3.0 | 50% |
| GQRDemocratic sponsor | A- | Jun 25 | 400LV | Askar +243 to 45adjusted Askar +4.3 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- New seat, no incumbent.
- On the ballot
- Pia Dandiya (D) vs Casey Askar (R)
- Last time
- 2024: Democrat 55.0, Republican 45.0. Frankel by 10.0. Under the previous map.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
- Lean
- R+4 by the Cook partisan index
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Pia Dandiya
Dandiya on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Casey Askar
Askar on Ballotpedia ↗