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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IN-05 ]

Indiana's 5th District

J. D. Ford (D)vsVictoria Spartz (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Victoria Spartz (R)

9 in 10

Victoria Spartz favored87%

Very likely for Victoria Spartz: a 87 percent chance of winning. Polls: Victoria Spartz up 5.3.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Victoria Spartz (R)
  • District:5 of 9 in Indiana
  • Odds:Spartz 87%
  • Margin:Spartz +7.3, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Spartz +5.3
  • Latest poll:Impact Research, Jul 20, Spartz +2.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Spartz +7.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Spartz +7.3
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Spartz +13.4 to Spartz +1.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Spartz +5.3 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Spartz +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ford ahead is positive, Spartz ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Impact ResearchSpartz +2
    Jul 20 · B/C46 to 48 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Spartz +5.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Victoria Spartz (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
J. D. Ford (D) vs Victoria Spartz (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 38.0, Republican 56.6. Spartz by 18.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.6, Harris 39.6. Trump by 19.0.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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