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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-14 ]

Florida's 14th District

Kathy Castor (D)vsMike Beltran (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: Kathy Castor (D)

9 in 10

Kathy Castor favored89%

Very likely for Kathy Castor: a 89 percent chance of winning. Polls: Kathy Castor up 7.7.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+4
  • Incumbent:Kathy Castor (D)
  • District:14 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Castor 89%
  • Margin:Castor +7.7, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Castor +7.7
  • Latest poll:St. Pete Polls, Jul 15, Castor +7.7
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Castor +7.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Castor +7.7
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Castor +1.6 to Castor +13.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Castor +7.7 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Castor +7.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Castor ahead is positive, Beltran ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kathy Castor (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kathy Castor (D, incumbent) vs Mike Beltran (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 56.9, Republican 41.6. Castor by 15.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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