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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-15 ]

Florida's 15th District

Robert People (D)vsLaurel Lee (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+9 · Incumbent: Laurel Lee (R)

9 in 10

Laurel Lee favored92%

Very likely for Laurel Lee: a 92 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+9
  • Incumbent:Laurel Lee (R)
  • District:15 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Lee 92%
  • Margin:Lee +10.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Lee +10.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Lee +10.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Lee +18.4 to Lee +2.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Lee +10.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: People ahead is positive, Lee ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+9, worth 15.7 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Laurel Lee, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Lee +10.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Laurel Lee (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Robert People (D) vs Laurel Lee (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 43.8, Republican 56.2. Lee by 12.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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