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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-19 ]

Florida's 19th District

Victor Arias (D)vsJim Schwartzel (R)

open seat · Lean: R+14 · Incumbent: Byron Donalds (R), not running

9 in 10

Jim Schwartzel favored97%

All but certain for Jim Schwartzel: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+14
  • Incumbent:Byron Donalds (R), not running
  • District:19 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Schwartzel 97%
  • Margin:Schwartzel +14.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Schwartzel +14.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Schwartzel +14.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Schwartzel +22.4 to Schwartzel +6.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Schwartzel +14.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Arias ahead is positive, Schwartzel ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+14, worth 24.4 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Schwartzel +14.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Byron Donalds (R) is running for governor instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Victor Arias (D) vs Jim Schwartzel (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 33.7, Republican 66.3. Donalds by 32.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+14 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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