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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-23 ]

Florida's 23rd District

Lois Frankel (D)vsDeborah Adeimy (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+9 · Incumbent: Lois Frankel Redistricted from the 22nd district (D)

99 in 100

Lois Frankel favored>99%

All but certain for Lois Frankel: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+9
  • Incumbent:Lois Frankel Redistricted from the 22nd district (D)
  • District:23 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Frankel >99%
  • Margin:Frankel +30.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Frankel +30.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Frankel +30.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Frankel +22.4 to Frankel +38.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Frankel +30.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Frankel ahead is positive, Adeimy ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+9, worth 15.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Lois Frankel Redistricted from the 22nd district, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Frankel +30.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Lois Frankel Redistricted from the 22nd district (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Lois Frankel (D) vs Deborah Adeimy (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 52.4, Republican 47.6. Moskowitz by 4.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
D+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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