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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // KY-03 ]

Kentucky's 3rd District

Morgan McGarvey (D)vsMaria Rodriquez (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+10 · Incumbent: Morgan McGarvey (D)

99 in 100

Morgan McGarvey favored>99%

All but certain for Morgan McGarvey: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+10
  • Incumbent:Morgan McGarvey (D)
  • District:3 of 6 in Kentucky
  • Odds:McGarvey >99%
  • Margin:McGarvey +32.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McGarvey +32.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McGarvey +32.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McGarvey +24.2 to McGarvey +40.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
McGarvey +32.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McGarvey ahead is positive, Rodriquez ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+10, worth 17.4 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Morgan McGarvey, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of McGarvey +32.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Morgan McGarvey (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Morgan McGarvey (D, incumbent) vs Maria Rodriquez (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 62.0, Republican 38.0. McGarvey by 24.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.5, Harris 33.9. Trump by 30.5.
Lean
D+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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