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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // KY-01 ]

Kentucky's 1st District

Drew Williams (D)vsJames Comer (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+23 · Incumbent: James Comer (R)

99 in 100

James Comer favored>99%

All but certain for James Comer: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+23
  • Incumbent:James Comer (R)
  • District:1 of 6 in Kentucky
  • Odds:Comer >99%
  • Margin:Comer +34.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Comer +34.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Comer +34.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Comer +42.8 to Comer +27.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Comer +34.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Williams ahead is positive, Comer ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+23, worth 40.0 points to the Republican), the incumbent (James Comer, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Comer +34.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
James Comer (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Drew Williams (D) vs James Comer (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 25.3, Republican 74.7. Comer by 49.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.5, Harris 33.9. Trump by 30.5.
Lean
R+23 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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