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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // KY-05 ]

Kentucky's 5th District

Ned Pillersdorf (D)vsHal Rogers (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+32 · Incumbent: Hal Rogers (R)

99 in 100

Hal Rogers favored>99%

All but certain for Hal Rogers: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+32
  • Incumbent:Hal Rogers (R)
  • District:5 of 6 in Kentucky
  • Odds:Rogers >99%
  • Margin:Rogers +50.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Rogers +50.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Rogers +50.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Rogers +58.4 to Rogers +42.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Rogers +50.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pillersdorf ahead is positive, Rogers ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+32, worth 55.7 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Hal Rogers, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Rogers +50.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Hal Rogers (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ned Pillersdorf (D) vs Hal Rogers (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Hal Rogers (R) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.5, Harris 33.9. Trump by 30.5.
Lean
R+32 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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