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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // KY-04 ]

Kentucky's 4th District

Melissa Strange (D)vsEd Gallrein (R)

open seat · Lean: R+18 · Incumbent: Thomas Massie (R), not running

99 in 100

Ed Gallrein favored>99%

All but certain for Ed Gallrein: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+18
  • Incumbent:Thomas Massie (R), not running
  • District:4 of 6 in Kentucky
  • Odds:Gallrein >99%
  • Margin:Gallrein +21.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gallrein +21.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gallrein +21.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gallrein +29.3 to Gallrein +13.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Gallrein +21.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Strange ahead is positive, Gallrein ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+18, worth 31.3 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Gallrein +21.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Thomas Massie (R) lost the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Melissa Strange (D) vs Ed Gallrein (R)
Last time
2024: Thomas Massie (R) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.5, Harris 33.9. Trump by 30.5.
Lean
R+18 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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