T-minus 16 days
● House // Race file
[ House // KY-06 ]
Kentucky's 6th District
Zach Dembo (D)vsRalph Alvarado (R)
open seat · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Andy Barr (R), not running
a coin flip
Too close to call51%
The model gives Zach Dembo a 49 percent chance and Ralph Alvarado 51 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: Zach Dembo up 3.1.
- Seat:Open seat
- Lean:R+7
- Incumbent:Andy Barr (R), not running
- District:6 of 6 in Kentucky
- Odds:a coin flip, Alvarado 51%
- Margin:Alvarado +0.1, give or take 4.8
- Polls:8, averaging Dembo +3.1
- Latest poll:DCCC Targeting Team, Oct 05, Dembo +6.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Alvarado +0.1
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Alvarado +0.1
- Uncertainty
- 4.8 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Alvarado +6.2 to Dembo +6.0 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Dembo +3.1 across 8 polls, worth 1.5 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Alvarado +2.3 before any polls
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Dembo ahead is positive, Alvarado ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 8 public polls
- DCCC Targeting TeamDembo +6Oct 05 · B/C · 606 LV46 to 40 · 24% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Dembo +3.4
- Change ResearchDembo +9Oct 05 · C+ · 524 LV47 to 38 · 29% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Dembo +3.2
- Lake Research PartnersDembo +6Oct 04 · A/B · 400 LV46 to 40 · 24% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Dembo +3.4
- GQRDembo +5Sep 30 · A- · 401 LV42 to 37 · 21% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Dembo +2.7
- Lake Research PartnersDembo +1Aug 23 · A/B45 to 44 · 2% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Alvarado +1.6
- Jul 30 · B/C · 474 LV47 to 47 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Alvarado +2.6
- GQRAlvarado +3Jun 28 · A-39 to 42 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Alvarado +5.3
- Public Policy PollingAlvarado +1Apr 25 · B+ · 675 RV36 to 37 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Alvarado +4.9
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Oct 05 | 606LV | Dembo +646 to 40adjusted Dembo +3.4 | 24% |
| Change ResearchDemocratic sponsor | C+ | Oct 05 | 524LV | Dembo +947 to 38adjusted Dembo +3.2 | 29% |
| Lake Research PartnersDemocratic sponsor | A/B | Oct 04 | 400LV | Dembo +646 to 40adjusted Dembo +3.4 | 24% |
| GQRDemocratic sponsor | A- | Sep 30 | 401LV | Dembo +542 to 37adjusted Dembo +2.7 | 21% |
| Lake Research PartnersDemocratic sponsor | A/B | Aug 23 | n/aLV | Dembo +145 to 44adjusted Alvarado +1.6 | 2% |
| DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Jul 30 | 474LV | Tie47 to 47adjusted Alvarado +2.6 | 0% |
| GQRDemocratic sponsor | A- | Jun 28 | n/aLV | Alvarado +339 to 42adjusted Alvarado +5.3 | 0% |
| Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor | B+ | Apr 25 | 675RV | Alvarado +136 to 37adjusted Alvarado +4.9 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Andy Barr (R) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Zach Dembo (D) vs Ralph Alvarado (R)
- Last time
- 2024: Democrat 36.6, Republican 63.4. Barr by 26.8.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 64.5, Harris 33.9. Trump by 30.5.
- Lean
- R+7 by the Cook partisan index
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Zach Dembo
Dembo on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Ralph Alvarado
Alvarado on Ballotpedia ↗