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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MD-03 ]

Maryland's 3rd District

Sarah Elfreth (D)vsBerney Flowers (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+12 · Incumbent: Sarah Elfreth (D)

99 in 100

Sarah Elfreth favored>99%

All but certain for Sarah Elfreth: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+12
  • Incumbent:Sarah Elfreth (D)
  • District:3 of 8 in Maryland
  • Odds:Elfreth >99%
  • Margin:Elfreth +35.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Elfreth +35.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Elfreth +35.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Elfreth +27.6 to Elfreth +43.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Elfreth +35.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Elfreth ahead is positive, Flowers ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+12, worth 20.9 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Sarah Elfreth, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Elfreth +35.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Sarah Elfreth (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Sarah Elfreth (D, incumbent) vs Berney Flowers (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 59.3, Republican 37.9. Elfreth by 21.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 34.1, Harris 62.6. Harris by 28.5.
Lean
D+12 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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