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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MD-06 ]

Maryland's 6th District

April McClain Delaney (D)vsRobin Ficker (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+3 · Incumbent: April McClain Delaney (D)

99 in 100

April McClain Delaney favored>99%

All but certain for April McClain Delaney: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+3
  • Incumbent:April McClain Delaney (D)
  • District:6 of 8 in Maryland
  • Odds:Delaney >99%
  • Margin:Delaney +19.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Delaney +19.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Delaney +19.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Delaney +12.0 to Delaney +27.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Delaney +19.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Delaney ahead is positive, Ficker ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+3, worth 5.2 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (April McClain Delaney, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Delaney +19.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
April McClain Delaney (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
April McClain Delaney (D, incumbent) vs Robin Ficker (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 53.1, Republican 46.7. Delaney by 6.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 34.1, Harris 62.6. Harris by 28.5.
Lean
D+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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