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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MD-04 ]

Maryland's 4th District

Glenn Ivey (D)vsGeorge McDermott (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+39 · Incumbent: Glenn Ivey (D)

99 in 100

Glenn Ivey favored>99%

All but certain for Glenn Ivey: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+39
  • Incumbent:Glenn Ivey (D)
  • District:4 of 8 in Maryland
  • Odds:Ivey >99%
  • Margin:Ivey +82.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ivey +82.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Ivey +82.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Ivey +74.6 to Ivey +90.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Ivey +82.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ivey ahead is positive, McDermott ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+39, worth 67.9 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Glenn Ivey, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Ivey +82.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Glenn Ivey (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Glenn Ivey (D, incumbent) vs George McDermott (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 88.4, Republican 11.2. Ivey by 77.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 34.1, Harris 62.6. Harris by 28.5.
Lean
D+39 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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