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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MD-07 ]

Maryland's 7th District

Kweisi Mfume (D)vsScott Collier (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+31 · Incumbent: Kweisi Mfume (D)

99 in 100

Kweisi Mfume favored>99%

All but certain for Kweisi Mfume: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+31
  • Incumbent:Kweisi Mfume (D)
  • District:7 of 8 in Maryland
  • Odds:Mfume >99%
  • Margin:Mfume +68.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mfume +68.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mfume +68.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mfume +60.7 to Mfume +76.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Mfume +68.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Mfume ahead is positive, Collier ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+31, worth 53.9 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Kweisi Mfume, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Mfume +68.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kweisi Mfume (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kweisi Mfume (D, incumbent) vs Scott Collier (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 80.3, Republican 17.2. Mfume by 63.1.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 34.1, Harris 62.6. Harris by 28.5.
Lean
D+31 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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