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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MD-05 ]

Maryland's 5th District

Adrian Boafo (D)vsChris Chaffee (R)

open seat · Lean: D+17 · Incumbent: Steny Hoyer (D), not running

99 in 100

Adrian Boafo favored>99%

All but certain for Adrian Boafo: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+17
  • Incumbent:Steny Hoyer (D), not running
  • District:5 of 8 in Maryland
  • Odds:Boafo >99%
  • Margin:Boafo +39.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Boafo +39.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Boafo +39.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Boafo +31.6 to Boafo +47.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Boafo +39.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Boafo ahead is positive, Chaffee ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+17, worth 29.6 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Boafo +39.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Steny Hoyer (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Adrian Boafo (D) vs Chris Chaffee (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 67.8, Republican 32.0. Hoyer by 35.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 34.1, Harris 62.6. Harris by 28.5.
Lean
D+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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