Minnesota's 1st District

Jake Johnson (D)vsBrad Finstad (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: Brad Finstad (R)

6 in 10

Brad Finstad favored64%

A slight edge for Brad Finstad: a 64 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jake Johnson up 1.9.

Seat:Incumbent running
Lean:R+6
Incumbent:Brad Finstad (R)
District:1 of 8 in Minnesota
Odds:Finstad 64%
Margin:Finstad +2.3, give or take 4.8
Polls:4, averaging Johnson +1.9
Latest poll:SurveyUSA, Oct 12, Johnson +2.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Finstad +2.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Finstad +2.3
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Finstad +8.4 to Johnson +3.8 (80 percent)
Poll average: Johnson +1.9 across 4 polls, worth 0.8 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Finstad +5.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Johnson ahead is positive, Finstad ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

SurveyUSAJohnson +2
Oct 12 · A · 565 LV46 to 44 · 93% weight
adjusted Johnson +2.3
GBAOJohnson +1
Sep 21 · B/C · 500 LV47 to 46 · 7% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Finstad +2.5
Ragnar Research PartnersFinstad +10
Mar 14 · B/C · 400 LV42 to 52 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Finstad +6.3
Public Policy PollingFinstad +3
Feb 03 · B+ · 708 RV41 to 44 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Finstad +6.9

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
SurveyUSA	A	Oct 12	565LV	Johnson +246 to 44adjusted Johnson +2.3	93%
GBAODemocratic sponsor	B/C	Sep 21	500LV	Johnson +147 to 46adjusted Finstad +2.5	7%
Ragnar Research PartnersRepublican sponsor	B/C	Mar 14	400LV	Finstad +1042 to 52adjusted Finstad +6.3	0%
Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor	B+	Feb 03	708RV	Finstad +341 to 44adjusted Finstad +6.9	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Brad Finstad (R), running for another term.
On the ballot: Jake Johnson (D) vs Brad Finstad (R, incumbent)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 41.5, Republican 58.5. Finstad by 17.0.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 46.7, Harris 50.9. Harris by 4.2.
Lean: R+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Jake Johnson
Johnson on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Brad Finstad
Finstad on Ballotpedia ↗

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