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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MN-05 ]

Minnesota's 5th District

Ilhan Omar (D)vsJohn Nagel (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+32 · Incumbent: Ilhan Omar (D)

99 in 100

Ilhan Omar favored>99%

All but certain for Ilhan Omar: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+32
  • Incumbent:Ilhan Omar (D)
  • District:5 of 8 in Minnesota
  • Odds:Omar >99%
  • Margin:Omar +70.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Omar +70.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Omar +70.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Omar +62.4 to Omar +78.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Omar +70.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Omar ahead is positive, Nagel ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+32, worth 55.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Ilhan Omar, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Omar +70.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ilhan Omar (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ilhan Omar (D, incumbent) vs John Nagel (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 75.2, Republican 24.8. Omar by 50.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.7, Harris 50.9. Harris by 4.2.
Lean
D+32 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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