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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MN-06 ]

Minnesota's 6th District

Doug Chapin (D)vsTom Emmer (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Tom Emmer (R)

9 in 10

Tom Emmer favored95%

Very likely for Tom Emmer: a 95 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Tom Emmer (R)
  • District:6 of 8 in Minnesota
  • Odds:Emmer 95%
  • Margin:Emmer +12.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Emmer +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Emmer +12.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Emmer +20.1 to Emmer +4.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Emmer +12.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Chapin ahead is positive, Emmer ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Tom Emmer, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Emmer +12.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tom Emmer (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Doug Chapin (D) vs Tom Emmer (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 37.5, Republican 62.5. Emmer by 25.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.7, Harris 50.9. Harris by 4.2.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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