Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MN-02 ]

Minnesota's 2nd District

Matt Little (D)vsEric Pratt (R)

open seat · Lean: D+3 · Incumbent: Angie Craig (D), not running

9 in 10

Matt Little favored98%

All but certain for Matt Little: a 98 percent chance of winning. Polls: Matt Little up 8.7.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+3
  • Incumbent:Angie Craig (D), not running
  • District:2 of 8 in Minnesota
  • Odds:Little 98%
  • Margin:Little +12.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Little +8.7
  • Latest poll:Impact Research, Sep 13, Little +12.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Little +12.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Little +12.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Little +6.4 to Little +18.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Little +8.7 across 2 polls, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Little +15.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Little ahead is positive, Pratt ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Impact ResearchLittle +12
    Sep 13 · B/C · 500 LV52 to 40 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Little +8.7
  • Harper PollingTie
    Jun 21 · B/C · 415 LV43 to 43 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Little +4.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Angie Craig (D) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Matt Little (D) vs Eric Pratt (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 55.6, Republican 42.1. Craig by 13.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.7, Harris 50.9. Harris by 4.2.
Lean
D+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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