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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MN-03 ]

Minnesota's 3rd District

Kelly Morrison (D)vsTyler Bass (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+11 · Incumbent: Kelly Morrison (D)

99 in 100

Kelly Morrison favored>99%

All but certain for Kelly Morrison: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+11
  • Incumbent:Kelly Morrison (D)
  • District:3 of 8 in Minnesota
  • Odds:Morrison >99%
  • Margin:Morrison +33.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Morrison +33.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Morrison +33.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Morrison +25.9 to Morrison +41.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Morrison +33.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Morrison ahead is positive, Bass ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+11, worth 19.1 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Kelly Morrison, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Morrison +33.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kelly Morrison (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kelly Morrison (D, incumbent) vs Tyler Bass (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 58.5, Republican 41.5. Morrison by 17.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.7, Harris 50.9. Harris by 4.2.
Lean
D+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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