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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // OH-01 ]

Ohio's 1st District

Greg Landsman (D)vsEric Conroy (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+1 · Incumbent: Greg Landsman (D)

9 in 10

Greg Landsman favored94%

Very likely for Greg Landsman: a 94 percent chance of winning. Polls: Greg Landsman up 5.7.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+1
  • Incumbent:Greg Landsman (D)
  • District:1 of 15 in Ohio
  • Odds:Landsman 94%
  • Margin:Landsman +10.0, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Landsman +5.7
  • Latest poll:Torchlight Strategies, Oct 02, Landsman +1.6
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Landsman +10.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Landsman +10.0
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Landsman +3.9 to Landsman +16.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Landsman +5.7 across 2 polls, worth 0.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Landsman +12.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Landsman ahead is positive, Conroy ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Torchlight StrategiesLandsman +1.6
    Oct 02 · B/C · 400 LV46 to 44 · 91% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Landsman +6.1
  • Quantus InsightsLandsman +3.3
    Aug 24 · B/C · 509 LV48 to 45 · 9% weight

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Greg Landsman (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Greg Landsman (D, incumbent) vs Eric Conroy (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 54.6, Republican 45.4. Landsman by 9.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
Lean
R+1 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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