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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OH-09 ]

Ohio's 9th District

Marcy Kaptur (D)vsDerek Merrin (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Marcy Kaptur (D)

6 in 10

Marcy Kaptur favored65%

A slight edge for Marcy Kaptur: a 65 percent chance of winning. Polls: Derek Merrin up 2.6.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+5
  • Incumbent:Marcy Kaptur (D)
  • District:9 of 15 in Ohio
  • Odds:Kaptur 65%
  • Margin:Kaptur +2.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Merrin +2.6
  • Latest poll:DCCC Targeting Team, Sep 23, tied
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Kaptur +2.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Kaptur +2.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Merrin +3.7 to Kaptur +8.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
Merrin +2.6 across 2 polls, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Kaptur +6.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Kaptur ahead is positive, Merrin ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • DCCC Targeting TeamTie
    Sep 23 · B/C · 481 LV48 to 48 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Merrin +2.6
  • McLaughlin & AssociatesMerrin +4
    Apr 20 · B/C · 400 LV43 to 47 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Kaptur +0.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Marcy Kaptur (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Marcy Kaptur (D, incumbent) vs Derek Merrin (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 48.3, Republican 47.6. Kaptur by 0.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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