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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OH-04 ]

Ohio's 4th District

Joshua Kolasinski (D)vsJim Jordan (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+21 · Incumbent: Jim Jordan (R)

99 in 100

Jim Jordan favored>99%

All but certain for Jim Jordan: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+21
  • Incumbent:Jim Jordan (R)
  • District:4 of 15 in Ohio
  • Odds:Jordan >99%
  • Margin:Jordan +31.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Jordan +31.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Jordan +31.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Jordan +39.3 to Jordan +23.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Jordan +31.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Kolasinski ahead is positive, Jordan ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+21, worth 36.5 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Jim Jordan, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Jordan +31.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jim Jordan (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Joshua Kolasinski (D) vs Jim Jordan (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 31.5, Republican 68.5. Jordan by 37.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
Lean
R+21 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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