Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // OH-02 ]

Ohio's 2nd District

Jennifer Mazzuckelli (D)vsDavid Taylor (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+21 · Incumbent: David Taylor (R)

99 in 100

David Taylor favored>99%

All but certain for David Taylor: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+21
  • Incumbent:David Taylor (R)
  • District:2 of 15 in Ohio
  • Odds:Taylor >99%
  • Margin:Taylor +31.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Taylor +31.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Taylor +31.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Taylor +39.3 to Taylor +23.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Taylor +31.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Mazzuckelli ahead is positive, Taylor ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+21, worth 36.5 points to the Republican), the incumbent (David Taylor, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Taylor +31.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
David Taylor (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jennifer Mazzuckelli (D) vs David Taylor (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 26.4, Republican 73.6. Taylor by 47.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
Lean
R+21 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats