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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OH-11 ]

Ohio's 11th District

Shontel Brown (D)vsMike Kirchner (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+28 · Incumbent: Shontel Brown (D)

99 in 100

Shontel Brown favored>99%

All but certain for Shontel Brown: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+28
  • Incumbent:Shontel Brown (D)
  • District:11 of 15 in Ohio
  • Odds:Brown >99%
  • Margin:Brown +63.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Brown +63.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Brown +63.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Brown +55.5 to Brown +71.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Brown +63.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Brown ahead is positive, Kirchner ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+28, worth 48.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Shontel Brown, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Brown +63.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Shontel Brown (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Shontel Brown (D, incumbent) vs Mike Kirchner (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 78.3, Republican 19.6. Brown by 58.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
Lean
D+28 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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