Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // OK-01 ]

Oklahoma's 1st District

John Croisant (D)vsMark Tedford (R)

open seat · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Kevin Hern (R), not running

9 in 10

Mark Tedford favored89%

Very likely for Mark Tedford: a 89 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Kevin Hern (R), not running
  • District:1 of 5 in Oklahoma
  • Odds:Tedford 89%
  • Margin:Tedford +9.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Tedford +9.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Tedford +9.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Tedford +17.1 to Tedford +1.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Tedford +9.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Croisant ahead is positive, Tedford ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Tedford +9.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kevin Hern (R) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
John Croisant (D) vs Mark Tedford (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.5, Republican 60.4. Hern by 25.9.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.2, Harris 31.9. Trump by 34.3.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats