Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OK-04 ]

Oklahoma's 4th District

Mitchell Jacob (D)vsTom Cole (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+17 · Incumbent: Tom Cole (R)

99 in 100

Tom Cole favored>99%

All but certain for Tom Cole: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+17
  • Incumbent:Tom Cole (R)
  • District:4 of 5 in Oklahoma
  • Odds:Cole >99%
  • Margin:Cole +24.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cole +24.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Cole +24.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Cole +32.3 to Cole +16.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Cole +24.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jacob ahead is positive, Cole ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+17, worth 29.6 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Tom Cole, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Cole +24.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tom Cole (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Mitchell Jacob (D) vs Tom Cole (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 28.3, Republican 65.2. Cole by 36.9.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.2, Harris 31.9. Trump by 34.3.
Lean
R+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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