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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OK-03 ]

Oklahoma's 3rd District

Suzie Byrd (D)vsFrank Lucas (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+23 · Incumbent: Frank Lucas (R)

99 in 100

Frank Lucas favored>99%

All but certain for Frank Lucas: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+23
  • Incumbent:Frank Lucas (R)
  • District:3 of 5 in Oklahoma
  • Odds:Lucas >99%
  • Margin:Lucas +34.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Lucas +34.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Lucas +34.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Lucas +42.8 to Lucas +27.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Lucas +34.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Byrd ahead is positive, Lucas ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+23, worth 40.0 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Frank Lucas, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Lucas +34.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Frank Lucas (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Suzie Byrd (D) vs Frank Lucas (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Frank Lucas (R) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.2, Harris 31.9. Trump by 34.3.
Lean
R+23 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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