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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OK-05 ]

Oklahoma's 5th District

Jena Nelson (D)vsStephanie Bice (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+9 · Incumbent: Stephanie Bice (R)

9 in 10

Stephanie Bice favored94%

Very likely for Stephanie Bice: a 94 percent chance of winning. Polls: Stephanie Bice up 8.5.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+9
  • Incumbent:Stephanie Bice (R)
  • District:5 of 5 in Oklahoma
  • Odds:Bice 94%
  • Margin:Bice +9.7, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Bice +8.5
  • Latest poll:GBAO, Sep 20, Bice +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bice +9.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bice +9.7
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bice +15.8 to Bice +3.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Bice +8.5 across 1 poll, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Bice +10.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Nelson ahead is positive, Bice ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • GBAOBice +5
    Sep 20 · B/C · 500 LV43 to 48 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Bice +8.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Stephanie Bice (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jena Nelson (D) vs Stephanie Bice (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.3, Republican 60.7. Bice by 21.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.2, Harris 31.9. Trump by 34.3.
Lean
R+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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