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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OK-02 ]

Oklahoma's 2nd District

Brandon Wade (D)vsJosh Brecheen (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+28 · Incumbent: Josh Brecheen (R)

99 in 100

Josh Brecheen favored>99%

All but certain for Josh Brecheen: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+28
  • Incumbent:Josh Brecheen (R)
  • District:2 of 5 in Oklahoma
  • Odds:Brecheen >99%
  • Margin:Brecheen +43.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Brecheen +43.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Brecheen +43.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Brecheen +51.5 to Brecheen +35.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Brecheen +43.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Wade ahead is positive, Brecheen ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+28, worth 48.7 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Josh Brecheen, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Brecheen +43.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Josh Brecheen (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Brandon Wade (D) vs Josh Brecheen (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 21.4, Republican 74.2. Brecheen by 52.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.2, Harris 31.9. Trump by 34.3.
Lean
R+28 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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